Is the stock market going to crash?
No one can know. This page shows where US stocks stand today against their own history. It gives no prediction.
Close of Friday 6 November 2026 · updated every trading day
The short answer
No one can say if or when the market falls. Prices can stay high for many years. They can also fall when they look normal. What we can show is where the market stands today against its own history.
Close of Friday 6 November 2026Each reading compares today with the same measure since 2006. Red is the hot side: prices high, gains narrow or little cash waiting. Green is the cold side. Grey is the usual range.
Today's readings
5 of 6 readings are on the hot side. 1 are on the cold side. 0 are in the usual range.
- CAPE ratio36.3Higher than usual
- Buffett Indicator234%Far larger than usual
- Top-10 concentration39.1%Far more than usual
- Equal weight vs cap weight+3.7 ptsBetter than usual
- Stocks vs bonds−0.8 ptsFar less than usual
- Cash on the sidelines6.8%Less than usual
- MonkStreet Fear & Greed Index67Greed
What history shows
- The US stock market fell by a third or more four times: 1929 to 1932, 1973 to 1974, 2000 to 2002 and 2008 to 2009.
- In 2020 it fell by about a third in one month. It was back at its old high within six months.
- Before the falls of 1929 and 2000, prices were very high against profits. But prices also stayed high for many years with no large fall.
- Some falls came from events that no measure showed, for example the 2020 pandemic.
What a long-term investor can know
- Large falls are a normal part of investing over decades.
- After past falls, prices came back, but sometimes it took many years. After 1929, prices did not pass their old high until 1954. After 2000, they took about 7 years, and then fell again in 2008.
- The readings on this page describe today. They do not show what comes next. Past results do not show future results.
What this page does not tell you
This page does not say when a fall starts, how large a fall can be or what you should do. It is information only. It is not personal advice.